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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | -1.1x - -1.2x | -1.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | -0.1x - -0.1x | -0.1x |
| Fair Value | A$0.22 - A$0.22 | A$0.22 |
| Upside | 8.0% - 6.3% | 7.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Champion Iron Limited | CIA | ASX:CIA |
| Fortescue Ltd | FMG | ASX:FMG |
| St Barbara Limited | SBM | ASX:SBM |
| Mount Gibson Iron Limited | MGX | ASX:MGX |
| Centrex Limited | CXM | ASX:CXM |
| Grange Resources Limited | GRR | ASX:GRR |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CIA | FMG | SBM | MGX | CXM | GRR | ||
| ASX:CIA | ASX:FMG | ASX:SBM | ASX:MGX | ASX:CXM | ASX:GRR | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 10.2% | 12.6% | NM- | -9.5% | NM- | -4.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -18.4% | -17.3% | NM- | -30.6% | NM- | -49.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -45.0% | -38.1% | 88.0% | -217.9% | -91.2% | -71.7% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 41.4% | 53.3% | -155.7% | -24.8% | -6125.9% | 37.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 26.6% | 47.5% | -197.6% | 4.7% | -36.8% | 33.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 28.1% | 46.8% | -35.8% | 5.1% | -59.6% | 11.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 19.1% | 36.3% | -37.1% | -43.7% | -59.6% | 11.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.08x | 1.96x | 0.47x | -0.17x | 0.66x | -0.11x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.9x | 3.9x | -1.6x | 16.2x | -1.2x | -0.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.9x | 5.4x | -1.3x | 0.4x | -1.1x | -1.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -1.3x | 0.4x | 10.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -1.0x | 1.1x | 2.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | -1.1x | -1.1x | -1.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 58 | 58 | 58 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | (63) | (66) | (69) | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 297 | 297 | 297 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 234 | 231 | 227 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,157.3 | 1,157.3 | 1,157.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | ||||
| FX Rate: AUD/AUD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.21 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -1.4% | -2.8% | -4.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CIA | FMG | SBM | MGX | CXM | GRR | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,125 | 32,091 | 99 | (67) | 18 | (59) | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 93 | 3,409 | 129 | 457 | 3 | 298 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 15 | 375 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (808) | (5,439) | (5) | (12) | (8) | (1) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,426 | 30,463 | 249 | 378 | 13 | 237 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 518.3 | 3,074.5 | 1,082.8 | 1,198.8 | 867.6 | 1,157.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4.68 | 9.91 | 0.23 | 0.32 | 0.01 | 0.21 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.90 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.20 | 15.79 | 0.23 | 0.32 | 0.01 | 0.21 | |
| Trading Currency | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.90 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |