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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 1.8x - 2.0x | 1.9x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 3.4x - 3.8x | 3.6x |
Fair Value | €4.57 - €5.08 | €4.82 |
Upside | 26.5% - 40.7% | 33.6% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
ZE PAK SA | ZEP | WSE:ZEP |
Energa SA | ENG | WSE:ENG |
EC Bedzin S.A. | BDZ | WSE:BDZ |
Polenergia S.A. | PEP | WSE:PEP |
Zespól Elektrocieplowni Wroclawskich KOGENERACJA S.A. | KGN | WSE:KGN |
ENEA S.A. | 58S | DB:58S |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
ZEP | ENG | BDZ | PEP | KGN | 58S | ||
WSE:ZEP | WSE:ENG | WSE:BDZ | WSE:PEP | WSE:KGN | DB:58S | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | NM- | 12.9% | NM- | 34.1% | 25.8% | 39.7% | |
3Y CAGR | NM- | 26.9% | NM- | 36.3% | 48.3% | 41.1% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 1110.8% | -39.3% | 63.2% | 14.9% | -15.7% | 226.2% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 1.9% | 8.0% | -51.6% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 5.4% | 7.0% | -62.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 2.3% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 16.2% | 7.6% | -81.0% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 10.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 15.5% | 4.9% | -48.9% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 19.5% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.16x | 0.61x | 0.39x | 1.08x | 0.42x | 0.26x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.0x | 5.9x | -0.8x | 7.6x | 2.2x | 1.1x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 1.1x | 12.4x | -0.8x | 10.0x | 3.7x | 1.4x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -0.8x | 3.7x | 12.4x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 2.8x | 3.4x | 5.7x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 1.8x | 1.9x | 2.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 6,643 | 6,643 | 6,643 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 11,742 | 12,360 | 12,978 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (658) | (658) | (658) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 11,084 | 11,702 | 12,320 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 529.7 | 529.7 | 529.7 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 20.92 | 22.09 | 23.26 | ||||
FX Rate: PLN/EUR | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.01 | 5.29 | 5.56 | 3.61 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 38.6% | 46.3% | 54.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | ZEP | ENG | BDZ | PEP | KGN | 58S | |
Enterprise Value | (411) | 12,886 | 60 | 4,554 | 1,167 | 8,656 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 566 | 1,453 | 16 | 1,489 | 15 | 7,451 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 800 | 147 | 0 | 1,708 | 0 | 200 | |
(-) Debt | (33) | (8,592) | (0) | (2,377) | (436) | (7,101) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (2) | (900) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,209) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 919 | 4,994 | 77 | 5,374 | 745 | 7,998 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 50.8 | 414.1 | 3.0 | 77.2 | 14.9 | 529.7 | |
Implied Stock Price | 18.08 | 12.06 | 25.65 | 69.60 | 50.00 | 15.10 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 4.18 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 18.08 | 12.06 | 25.65 | 69.60 | 50.00 | 3.61 | |
Trading Currency | PLN | PLN | PLN | PLN | PLN | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 4.18 |