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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.8x | 0.8x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.7x | 0.7x |
| Fair Value | €26.50 - €29.50 | €28 |
| Upside | 20.6% - 34.3% | 27.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Talgo, S.A. | TLGO | BME:TLGO |
| Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. | CAF | BME:CAF |
| Vossloh AG | VOS | DB:VOS |
| Rafako S.A. | RFK | WSE:RFK |
| Haulotte Group SA | PIG | ENXTPA:PIG |
| Alstom SA | ALO | ENXTPA:ALO |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| TLGO | CAF | VOS | RFK | PIG | ALO | |||
| BME:TLGO | BME:CAF | DB:VOS | WSE:RFK | ENXTPA:PIG | ENXTPA:ALO | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 11.2% | 10.1% | 7.0% | -23.4% | 6.4% | 16.9% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 7.3% | 12.8% | 11.8% | -34.8% | 20.1% | 26.1% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.1% | 10.2% | -5.6% | -101.6% | 0.5% | 6.2% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 554.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.0% | 4.7% | 7.4% | -15.0% | -1.0% | 1.6% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | -10.4% | 5.1% | 7.9% | -84.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -10.4% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 11867.4% | 6.1% | 3.0% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.22x | 0.39x | 1.22x | -38.45x | 0.45x | 0.62x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | -11.8x | 7.6x | 15.3x | -0.3x | 7.4x | 20.7x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.60x | 0.32x | 1.05x | -18.89x | 0.12x | 0.57x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | -38.45x | 0.45x | 1.22x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.71x | 0.82x | 1.72x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.74x | 0.78x | 0.82x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 17,951 | 17,951 | 17,951 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 13,349 | 14,052 | 14,754 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (939) | (939) | (939) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 12,410 | 13,113 | 13,815 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 461.5 | 461.5 | 461.5 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 26.89 | 28.41 | 29.94 | |||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 26.89 | 28.41 | 29.94 | 21.97 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 22.4% | 29.3% | 36.3% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TLGO | CAF | VOS | RFK | PIG | ALO | |
| Enterprise Value | 842 | 1,654 | 1,411 | 176 | 327 | 11,078 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 93 | 599 | 83 | 30 | 50 | 1,789 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 59 | 63 | 44 | 5 | 942 | |
| (-) Debt | (511) | (910) | (312) | (161) | (298) | (3,560) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (9) | (14) | (30) | 0 | 0 | (110) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 416 | 1,387 | 1,215 | 88 | 85 | 10,139 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 122.9 | 34.2 | 19.3 | 161.4 | 29.5 | 461.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 3.39 | 40.50 | 62.90 | 0.55 | 2.88 | 21.97 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3.39 | 40.50 | 62.90 | 0.55 | 2.88 | 21.97 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | PLN | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |