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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.9x - 6.5x | 6.2x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.6x - 4.0x | 3.8x |
Fair Value | ₺204.22 - ₺245.29 | ₺224.76 |
Upside | 22.2% - 46.8% | 34.5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Molson Coors Beverage Company | M1CB34 | BOVESPA:M1CB34 |
Heineken N.V. | HEIA34 | BOVESPA:HEIA34 |
Carlsberg A/S | CABJ.F | OTCPK:CABJ.F |
Diageo plc | DEO | BASE:DEO |
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited | TSGT.F | OTCPK:TSGT.F |
Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi | AEFES | IBSE:AEFES |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
M1CB34 | HEIA34 | CABJ.F | DEO | TSGT.F | AEFES | ||
BOVESPA:M1CB34 | BOVESPA:HEIA34 | OTCPK:CABJ.F | BASE:DEO | OTCPK:TSGT.F | IBSE:AEFES | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 16.7% | 57.5% | |
3Y CAGR | 2.3% | 7.9% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 17.0% | 76.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 8.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | -3.8% | 1.4% | -5.0% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 20.7% | 19.5% | 21.1% | 33.2% | 13.7% | 17.1% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 19.5% | 18.1% | 18.9% | 33.1% | 14.5% | 17.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 21.3% | 19.1% | 19.2% | 32.1% | 15.9% | 16.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 21.3% | 19.1% | 19.2% | 31.0% | 17.4% | 16.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.53x | 1.88x | 1.91x | 3.84x | 1.88x | 0.90x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.2x | 9.8x | 10.0x | 12.4x | 10.8x | 5.6x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 9.8x | 14.5x | 13.5x | 13.4x | 13.4x | 7.8x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.2x | 10.0x | 12.4x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.9x | 5.6x | 6.6x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.9x | 6.2x | 6.5x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 37,545 | 37,545 | 37,545 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 220,479 | 232,083 | 243,688 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (110,138) | (110,138) | (110,138) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 110,341 | 121,946 | 133,550 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 592.1 | 592.1 | 592.1 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 186.35 | 205.95 | 225.55 | ||||
FX Rate: TRY/TRY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 186.35 | 205.95 | 225.55 | 167.10 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 11.5% | 23.3% | 35.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | M1CB34 | HEIA34 | CABJ.F | DEO | TSGT.F | AEFES | |
Enterprise Value | 17,778 | 18,722 | 150,396 | 73,343 | 63,736 | 209,079 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 969 | 2,350 | 11,601 | 1,656 | 25,183 | 54,233 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 205 | 3,979 | 4,674 | 5,178 | 2,835 | 38 | |
(-) Debt | (6,354) | (17,049) | (38,140) | (22,593) | (109) | (78,683) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (360) | (2,821) | (2,841) | (2,121) | (875) | (85,726) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 12,238 | 5,181 | 125,690 | 55,463 | 90,769 | 98,941 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 202.6 | 559.9 | 146.7 | 2,585.0 | 1,792.3 | 592.1 | |
Implied Stock Price | 60.40 | 9.25 | 856.72 | 21.46 | 50.64 | 167.10 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.17 | 0.16 | 6.89 | 0.00 | 7.26 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 348.00 | 57.70 | 124.30 | 22,975.00 | 6.97 | 167.10 | |
Trading Currency | BRL | BRL | USD | ARS | USD | TRY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.17 | 0.16 | 6.89 | 0.00 | 7.26 | 1.00 |