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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 2.5x - 2.8x | 2.7x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 2.0x - 2.2x | 2.1x |
| Fair Value | $72.16 - $79.64 | $75.90 |
| Upside | -14.7% - -5.8% | -10.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| MoneyLion Inc. | ML | NYSE:ML |
| LendingClub Corporation | LC | NYSE:LC |
| Upstart Holdings, Inc. | UPST | NasdaqGS:UPST |
| Affirm Holdings, Inc. | AFRM | NasdaqGS:AFRM |
| Open Lending Corporation | LPRO | NasdaqGM:LPRO |
| Dave Inc. | DAVE | NasdaqGM:DAVE |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| ML | LC | UPST | AFRM | LPRO | DAVE | |||
| NYSE:ML | NYSE:LC | NasdaqGS:UPST | NasdaqGS:AFRM | NasdaqGM:LPRO | NasdaqGM:DAVE | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 55.8% | 3.0% | 28.8% | 54.4% | 17.6% | 35.4% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 47.2% | 9.2% | -7.4% | 38.7% | 2.6% | 31.4% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 28.9% | 2.2% | 23.4% | 46.3% | -25.9% | 34.0% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -16.6% | 7.2% | -10.3% | -45.5% | 50.6% | -26.7% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | -1.3% | 5.2% | -40.4% | -73.2% | 54.4% | -16.3% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 4.9% | 5.7% | -19.6% | -26.1% | 24.8% | 10.0% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.9% | 5.7% | -19.6% | -13.1% | 5.1% | 10.0% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.78x | 0.22x | 7.65x | 4.97x | 2.39x | 3.15x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 36.5x | 3.9x | -39.1x | -38.0x | 46.7x | 31.6x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.80x | 1.02x | 6.55x | 5.28x | 3.49x | 3.19x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.22x | 2.39x | 7.65x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.29x | 1.62x | 3.15x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 2.55x | 2.68x | 2.82x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 347 | 347 | 347 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 884 | 931 | 978 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 15 | 15 | 15 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 899 | 946 | 992 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 68.67 | 72.22 | 75.78 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 68.67 | 72.22 | 75.78 | 84.55 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -18.8% | -14.6% | -10.4% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ML | LC | UPST | AFRM | LPRO | DAVE | |
| Enterprise Value | 974 | (2,864) | 5,135 | 13,913 | 229 | 1,092 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 140 | 954 | 795 | 1,240 | 250 | 90 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 3,118 | 41 | 7,131 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (132) | (29) | (1,540) | (7,496) | (145) | (76) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 982 | 1,180 | 4,432 | 14,788 | 334 | 1,107 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 11.3 | 113.4 | 93.7 | 320.1 | 119.4 | 13.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 86.76 | 10.41 | 47.29 | 46.20 | 2.80 | 84.55 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 86.76 | 10.41 | 47.29 | 46.20 | 2.80 | 84.55 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |