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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 14.7x - 16.2x | 15.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 14.2x - 15.7x | 14.9x |
| Fair Value | ₹903.68 - ₹997.22 | ₹950.45 |
| Upside | -16.8% - -8.2% | -12.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Allcargo Gati Limited | ACLGATI | NSEI:ACLGATI |
| Mahindra Logistics Limited | MAHLOG | NSEI:MAHLOG |
| Blue Dart Express Limited | BLUEDART | NSEI:BLUEDART |
| Allcargo Logistics Limited | ALLCARGO | NSEI:ALLCARGO |
| ABC India Limited | 520123 | BSE:520123 |
| Transport Corporation of India Limited | TCI | NSEI:TCI |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ACLGATI | MAHLOG | BLUEDART | ALLCARGO | 520123 | TCI | ||
| NSEI:ACLGATI | NSEI:MAHLOG | NSEI:BLUEDART | NSEI:ALLCARGO | BSE:520123 | NSEI:TCI | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | -11.2% | 17.0% | -11.2% | -8.7% | 9.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 4.2% | 10.1% | -23.3% | 0.6% | 15.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 210.9% | 26.6% | 6.9% | 12.9% | -6.4% | 11.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 1.1% | 2.3% | 13.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 10.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 1.4% | 2.5% | 13.9% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 11.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -0.2% | 1.5% | 11.5% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 10.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.7% | 1.9% | 11.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 10.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.56x | 0.45x | 2.81x | 0.29x | 0.30x | 1.85x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 81.5x | 24.5x | 25.6x | 16.7x | 10.8x | 17.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -409.6x | 58.9x | 37.8x | 43.9x | 12.5x | 23.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.8x | 24.5x | 81.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.6x | 11.0x | 14.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.7x | 15.5x | 16.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 4,687 | 4,687 | 4,687 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 68,892 | 72,518 | 76,144 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 1,153 | 1,153 | 1,153 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 70,045 | 73,671 | 77,297 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 76.6 | 76.6 | 76.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 914.33 | 961.66 | 1,008.99 | ||||
| FX Rate: INR/INR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 914.33 | 961.66 | 1,008.99 | 1,086.20 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -15.8% | -11.5% | -7.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ACLGATI | MAHLOG | BLUEDART | ALLCARGO | 520123 | TCI | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,724 | 27,237 | 157,125 | 42,535 | 490 | 82,059 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,865 | 248 | 4,518 | 8,102 | 169 | 3,370 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,421) | (8,359) | (10,966) | (21,941) | (187) | (2,217) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 8,168 | 19,125 | 150,677 | 28,697 | 471 | 83,212 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 147.1 | 72.1 | 23.7 | 982.8 | 5.4 | 76.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 55.54 | 265.14 | 6,350.20 | 29.20 | 87.00 | 1,086.20 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 55.54 | 265.14 | 6,350.20 | 29.20 | 87.00 | 1,086.20 | |
| Trading Currency | INR | INR | INR | INR | INR | INR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |