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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 2.7x - 2.9x | 2.8x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 2.4x - 2.7x | 2.5x |
| Fair Value | $1.23 - $1.35 | $1.29 |
| Upside | -9.7% - -0.6% | -5.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | HMY | NYSE:HMY |
| African Rainbow Minerals Limited | AFBO.F | OTCPK:AFBO.F |
| Anglo American Platinum Limited | ANGP.Y | OTCPK:ANGP.Y |
| Sibanye Stillwater Limited | SBSW | NYSE:SBSW |
| Gold Fields Limited | GFI | NYSE:GFI |
| DRDGOLD Limited | DRDG.F | OTCPK:DRDG.F |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| HMY | AFBO.F | ANGP.Y | SBSW | GFI | DRDG.F | |||
| NYSE:HMY | OTCPK:AFBO.F | OTCPK:ANGP.Y | NYSE:SBSW | NYSE:GFI | OTCPK:DRDG.F | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 17.9% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 17.7% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 13.7% | -16.6% | -20.2% | -13.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 16.8% | -3.6% | -12.5% | -1.4% | 15.6% | 21.5% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 13.9% | 31.6% | 32.4% | 12.0% | 34.2% | 25.9% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 16.0% | 32.3% | 14.8% | -27.5% | 31.6% | 24.9% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 23.4% | -1.5% | 14.6% | -7.7% | 38.2% | 24.9% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 25.6% | -7.1% | 14.6% | -7.7% | 38.2% | 29.8% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.25x | 2.43x | 1.62x | 0.69x | 4.26x | 3.25x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.8x | -34.4x | 11.1x | -8.9x | 11.2x | 10.9x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 2.35x | 2.62x | 1.79x | 0.51x | 3.82x | 3.34x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.69x | 2.25x | 4.26x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.20x | 2.17x | 5.85x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 2.66x | 2.80x | 2.94x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 7,068 | 7,068 | 7,068 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 18,806 | 19,795 | 20,785 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 796 | 796 | 796 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 19,601 | 20,591 | 21,581 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 865.6 | 865.6 | 865.6 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 22.65 | 23.79 | 24.93 | |||||
| FX Rate: ZAR/USD | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.23 | 1.29 | 1.35 | 1.36 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -9.7% | -5.2% | -0.6% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | HMY | AFBO.F | ANGP.Y | SBSW | GFI | DRDG.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 151,182 | (7,948) | 167,577 | 76,976 | 21,709 | 20,916 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 9,396 | 8,444 | 25,423 | 16,049 | 860 | 661 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 140 | 33,770 | 2,738 | 10,830 | 153 | 157 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,419) | (2,134) | (8,657) | (42,065) | (2,946) | (22) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (218) | (4,134) | (374) | (4,310) | (166) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 158,081 | 27,998 | 186,707 | 57,480 | 19,610 | 21,712 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 609.6 | 176.1 | 1,533.8 | 711.5 | 895.0 | 865.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 259.32 | 158.96 | 121.73 | 80.78 | 21.91 | 25.08 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 18.44 | 18.44 | 18.44 | 18.44 | 1.00 | 18.44 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 14.06 | 8.62 | 6.60 | 4.38 | 21.91 | 1.36 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 18.44 | 18.44 | 18.44 | 18.44 | 1.00 | 18.44 | |