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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.8x - 8.6x | 8.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.4x - 7.0x | 6.7x |
| Fair Value | $6.47 - $8.27 | $7.37 |
| Upside | -1.4% - 26.1% | 12.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Suzano S.A. | SUZB3 | BOVESPA:SUZB3 |
| Billerud AB (publ) | BLRD.Y | OTCPK:BLRD.Y |
| Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG | MNHF.F | OTCPK:MNHF.F |
| Packaging Corporation of America | P1KG34 | BOVESPA:P1KG34 |
| International Paper Company | I1PC34 | BOVESPA:I1PC34 |
| Klabin S.A. | KLBA.Y | OTCPK:KLBA.Y |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| SUZB3 | BLRD.Y | MNHF.F | P1KG34 | I1PC34 | KLBA.Y | ||
| BOVESPA:SUZB3 | OTCPK:BLRD.Y | OTCPK:MNHF.F | BOVESPA:P1KG34 | BOVESPA:I1PC34 | OTCPK:KLBA.Y | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 18.2% | 14.3% | 1.5% | 2.9% | -5.9% | 14.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 0.1% | 11.9% | 4.8% | -0.7% | -10.2% | 2.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 32.2% | 64.5% | 8.0% | 3.4% | -6.7% | 22.6% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 51.5% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 20.8% | 13.5% | 37.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 44.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 20.8% | 11.5% | 33.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 49.5% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 20.0% | 10.9% | 37.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 49.5% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 20.0% | 10.9% | 37.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.21x | 0.76x | 0.75x | 2.30x | 1.71x | 3.05x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.5x | 6.2x | 7.4x | 11.5x | 15.7x | 8.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.4x | 13.4x | 16.1x | 16.6x | 33.1x | 17.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.2x | 7.4x | 15.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.0x | 8.1x | 13.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.8x | 8.2x | 8.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 7,367 | 7,367 | 7,367 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 57,160 | 60,169 | 63,177 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (35,896) | (35,896) | (35,896) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 21,265 | 24,273 | 27,281 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 590.8 | 590.8 | 590.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 35.99 | 41.09 | 46.18 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/USD | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.30 | 7.19 | 8.08 | 6.56 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -4.0% | 9.6% | 23.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SUZB3 | BLRD.Y | MNHF.F | P1KG34 | I1PC34 | KLBA.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 152,311 | 34,320 | 2,711 | 24,972 | 33,754 | 58,043 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 21,990 | 2,561 | 520 | 787 | 1,170 | 7,530 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,591 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 160 | 122 | |
| (-) Debt | (108,408) | (7,966) | (1,900) | (2,772) | (6,009) | (41,562) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (131) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,985) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 67,353 | 28,915 | 1,331 | 23,053 | 29,075 | 22,147 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,239.2 | 137.8 | 20.0 | 186.5 | 526.1 | 590.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 54.35 | 209.77 | 66.55 | 123.62 | 55.26 | 37.49 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 10.13 | 0.92 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 5.71 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 54.35 | 20.70 | 72.00 | 706.46 | 315.81 | 6.56 | |
| Trading Currency | BRL | USD | USD | BRL | BRL | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 10.13 | 0.92 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 5.71 | |