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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 12.5x - 13.8x | 13.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 11.0x - 12.2x | 11.6x |
| Fair Value | $10.60 - $12.35 | $11.48 |
| Upside | -17.5% - -3.9% | -10.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Suntory Beverage & Food Limited | 2587 | TSE:2587 |
| Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. | 2502 | TSE:2502 |
| Sapporo Holdings Limited | 2501 | TSE:2501 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | KDP | NasdaqGS:KDP |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited | 600600 | SHSE:600600 |
| Kirin Holdings Company, Limited | KNBW.F | OTCPK:KNBW.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 2587 | 2502 | 2501 | KDP | 600600 | KNBW.F | ||
| TSE:2587 | TSE:2502 | TSE:2501 | NasdaqGS:KDP | SHSE:600600 | OTCPK:KNBW.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.7% | 5.6% | -2.7% | 7.7% | 25.7% | 2.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 8.1% | 11.5% | 25.3% | 3.9% | 23.9% | 9.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.9% | 7.3% | -32.7% | 5.4% | -0.4% | 3.4% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.4% | 8.6% | 1.9% | 22.8% | 10.4% | 8.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.2% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 21.7% | 11.5% | 8.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.4% | 9.2% | 2.0% | 22.1% | 12.9% | 8.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.4% | 9.2% | 2.0% | 22.1% | 14.1% | 8.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.89x | 1.34x | 1.03x | 4.08x | 1.91x | 1.11x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.3x | 9.2x | 16.6x | 15.2x | 11.0x | 9.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.4x | 14.6x | 52.7x | 18.5x | 13.6x | 13.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 9.4x | 14.6x | 52.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 9.3x | 13.6x | 14.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 12.5x | 13.1x | 13.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 190,429 | 190,429 | 190,429 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,378,706 | 2,503,901 | 2,629,096 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (874,936) | (874,936) | (874,936) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,503,770 | 1,628,965 | 1,754,160 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 947.7 | 947.7 | 947.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,586.81 | 1,718.92 | 1,851.03 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/USD | 151.0 | 151.0 | 151.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 10.51 | 11.38 | 12.26 | 12.85 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -18.2% | -11.4% | -4.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2587 | 2502 | 2501 | KDP | 600600 | KNBW.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,489,428 | 3,937,363 | 549,041 | 62,358 | 61,829 | 2,714,232 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 165,051 | 83,961 | 24,140 | 510 | 25,183 | 118,617 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 14,775 | 214,703 | 281,839 | 1,632 | 2,835 | 216,205 | |
| (-) Debt | (27,216) | (1,279,176) | (236,584) | (18,330) | (109) | (857,569) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (105,690) | (5,250) | (1,127) | 0 | (875) | (352,189) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,536,348 | 2,951,601 | 617,309 | 46,170 | 88,863 | 1,839,296 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 309.0 | 1,502.9 | 77.9 | 1,356.8 | 1,145.6 | 947.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4,972.00 | 1,964.00 | 7,922.00 | 34.03 | 77.57 | 1,940.86 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 151.04 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4,972.00 | 1,964.00 | 7,922.00 | 34.03 | 77.57 | 12.85 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | CNY | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 151.04 | |