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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 21.5x - 23.8x | 22.7x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 6.3x - 7.0x | 6.6x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 0.32 - HK$ 0.44 | HK$ 0.38 |
| Upside | -21.3% - 8.2% | -6.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited | 3996 | SEHK:3996 |
| Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd. | 1618 | SEHK:1618 |
| China National Chemical Engineering Co., Ltd | 601117 | SHSE:601117 |
| Huadian Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. | 601226 | SHSE:601226 |
| Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited | 600248 | SHSE:600248 |
| Jujiang Construction Group Co., Ltd. | 1459 | SEHK:1459 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 3996 | 1618 | 601117 | 601226 | 600248 | 1459 | ||
| SEHK:3996 | SEHK:1618 | SHSE:601117 | SHSE:601226 | SHSE:600248 | SEHK:1459 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 11.1% | 4.7% | 16.2% | 5.9% | 35.6% | -29.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 6.5% | 2.9% | 9.3% | -20.4% | 25.0% | -41.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.2% | -38.3% | 21.2% | -46.0% | 21.1% | -78.0% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 4.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 4.5% | 0.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.5% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 4.9% | 0.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.76x | 0.19x | 0.11x | 0.90x | 0.27x | 0.08x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.1x | 6.7x | 2.2x | 29.9x | 5.1x | 12.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 16.9x | 8.3x | 2.7x | 54.1x | 5.6x | 24.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 2.7x | 8.3x | 54.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 2.1x | 3.3x | 7.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 21.5x | 22.7x | 23.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 25 | 25 | 25 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 547 | 576 | 605 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (410) | (410) | (410) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 138 | 166 | 195 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 533.4 | 533.4 | 533.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.37 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/HKD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.41 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -32.6% | -18.4% | -4.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 3996 | 1618 | 601117 | 601226 | 600248 | 1459 | |
| Enterprise Value | 318,007 | 110,523 | 19,071 | 7,386 | 43,345 | 614 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 73,796 | 33,662 | 39,714 | 1,785 | 20,605 | 231 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 65,044 | 41,965 | 4,509 | 1 | 9,589 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (281,765) | (95,033) | (10,383) | (128) | (45,285) | (611) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (79,241) | (29,510) | (7,035) | (178) | (12,016) | (30) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 95,841 | 61,607 | 45,877 | 8,866 | 16,238 | 204 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 95,158.4 | 40,037.3 | 6,108.7 | 1,166.6 | 3,767.6 | 533.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1.01 | 1.54 | 7.51 | 7.60 | 4.31 | 0.38 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1.08 | 1.65 | 7.51 | 7.60 | 4.31 | 0.41 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | HKD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | |