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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 10.9x - 12.1x | 11.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.4x - 5.9x | 5.6x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 0.36 - HK$ 0.48 | HK$ 0.42 |
| Upside | -6.4% - 26.3% | 10.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited | 3996 | SEHK:3996 |
| Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd. | 1618 | SEHK:1618 |
| China National Chemical Engineering Co., Ltd | 601117 | SHSE:601117 |
| Huadian Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. | 601226 | SHSE:601226 |
| Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited | 600248 | SHSE:600248 |
| Jujiang Construction Group Co., Ltd. | 1459 | SEHK:1459 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 3996 | 1618 | 601117 | 601226 | 600248 | 1459 | ||
| SEHK:3996 | SEHK:1618 | SHSE:601117 | SHSE:601226 | SHSE:600248 | SEHK:1459 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 12.1% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 6.2% | 33.2% | -23.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 10.0% | 2.4% | 9.0% | -8.4% | 24.7% | -34.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.3% | -35.4% | 19.0% | -31.9% | 20.5% | -63.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 6.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 0.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.3% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 0.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.76x | 0.20x | 0.10x | 0.88x | 0.28x | 0.08x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.1x | 6.7x | 2.2x | 29.0x | 5.2x | 12.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 17.0x | 8.4x | 2.6x | 52.5x | 5.6x | 24.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.2x | 6.7x | 29.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.0x | 3.1x | 5.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.9x | 11.5x | 12.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 51 | 51 | 51 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 554 | 584 | 613 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (410) | (410) | (410) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 145 | 174 | 203 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 533.4 | 533.4 | 533.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.38 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/HKD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.29 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.38 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -23.6% | -8.2% | 7.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 3996 | 1618 | 601117 | 601226 | 600248 | 1459 | |
| Enterprise Value | 316,435 | 111,029 | 18,949 | 7,165 | 43,722 | 599 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 73,796 | 33,662 | 39,714 | 1,785 | 20,605 | 231 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 65,044 | 41,965 | 4,509 | 1 | 9,589 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (281,765) | (95,033) | (10,383) | (128) | (45,285) | (611) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (79,241) | (29,510) | (7,035) | (178) | (12,016) | (30) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 94,269 | 62,114 | 45,754 | 8,645 | 16,615 | 189 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 95,158.4 | 40,037.3 | 6,108.7 | 1,166.6 | 3,767.6 | 533.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.99 | 1.55 | 7.49 | 7.41 | 4.41 | 0.36 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1.06 | 1.66 | 7.49 | 7.41 | 4.41 | 0.38 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | HKD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | |