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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 17.4x - 19.2x | 18.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 22.3x - 24.6x | 23.5x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 1.68 - HK$ 1.79 | HK$ 1.73 |
| Upside | -15.2% - -9.7% | -12.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Bestsun Energy Co., Ltd. | 600681 | SHSE:600681 |
| Henan Lantian Gas Co.,Ltd. | 605368 | SHSE:605368 |
| Shandong Shengli Co., Ltd. | 407 | SZSE:000407 |
| Shaanxi Meineng Clean Energy Corp.,Ltd. | 1299 | SZSE:001299 |
| Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited | 1600 | SEHK:1600 |
| Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group) Co.,Ltd. | 1635 | SEHK:1635 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 600681 | 605368 | 407 | 1299 | 1600 | 1635 | ||
| SHSE:600681 | SHSE:605368 | SZSE:000407 | SZSE:001299 | SEHK:1600 | SEHK:1635 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -13.4% | 12.6% | -4.1% | -2.5% | -3.0% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | -8.3% | 19.3% | 14.8% | -15.6% | -11.7% | 4.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -26.9% | -9.6% | -17.8% | 18.5% | -1.2% | 41.5% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 14.5% | 15.0% | 6.1% | 13.4% | 18.2% | 4.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.6% | 16.3% | 6.7% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 3.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.1% | 16.4% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 4.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.3% | 15.0% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 5.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.97x | 1.58x | 0.76x | 2.66x | 1.08x | 1.03x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.7x | 8.3x | 8.7x | 19.1x | 6.2x | 9.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.7x | 10.6x | 12.5x | 25.4x | 8.4x | 17.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 8.4x | 11.7x | 25.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 12.9x | 27.0x | 145.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 17.4x | 18.3x | 19.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 365 | 365 | 365 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 6,347 | 6,681 | 7,015 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 3,896 | 3,896 | 3,896 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 10,243 | 10,577 | 10,911 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6,538.4 | 6,538.4 | 6,538.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.57 | 1.62 | 1.67 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/HKD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.68 | 1.73 | 1.79 | 1.98 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -15.3% | -12.6% | -9.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600681 | 605368 | 407 | 1299 | 1600 | 1635 | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,119 | 7,900 | 3,218 | 1,722 | 8,116 | 8,203 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 502 | 983 | 814 | 600 | 1,295 | 3,569 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 43 | 92 | 823 | 114 | 929 | 9,967 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,090) | (1,234) | (1,505) | (3) | (7,614) | (8,127) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (165) | (66) | (349) | (1) | (308) | (1,513) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,408 | 7,675 | 3,001 | 2,432 | 2,418 | 12,099 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 990.7 | 714.6 | 880.1 | 183.5 | 969.1 | 6,538.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 3.44 | 10.74 | 3.41 | 13.25 | 2.50 | 1.85 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.93 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3.44 | 10.74 | 3.41 | 13.25 | 2.67 | 1.98 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | HKD | HKD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.93 | |