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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 12.4x - 13.7x | 13.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | -154.1x - -170.3x | -162.2x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 0 - HK$ 2.25 | HK$ 1.04 |
| Upside | -100.0% - 40.5% | -34.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| KWG Group Holdings Limited | 1813 | SEHK:1813 |
| Logan Group Company Limited | 3380 | SEHK:3380 |
| Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. | XIN | NYSE:XIN |
| Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Limited | 1238 | SEHK:1238 |
| Country Garden Holdings Company Limited | 2007 | SEHK:2007 |
| Sunac China Holdings Limited | 1918 | SEHK:1918 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 1813 | 3380 | XIN | 1238 | 2007 | 1918 | ||
| SEHK:1813 | SEHK:3380 | NYSE:XIN | SEHK:1238 | SEHK:2007 | SEHK:1918 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | -28.5% | -39.3% | NM- | -1.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | -4.7% | -64.6% | NM- | -22.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.1% | 22.9% | 220.5% | -116.0% | -113.1% | 341.6% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -14.2% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 20.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -44.2% | -19.0% | -4.3% | 23.2% | 2.6% | -12.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -48.2% | -14.5% | 8.8% | 2.0% | -29.1% | 10.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -68.4% | -16.0% | 13.0% | -3.8% | -29.8% | 13.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.89x | 1.97x | 2.15x | 2.45x | 0.92x | 1.76x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -4.2x | -12.3x | 16.5x | -63.9x | -3.1x | 13.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -4.1x | -12.2x | 20.7x | -49.4x | -3.0x | 15.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -63.9x | -4.2x | 16.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -10.0x | 11.2x | 42.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.4x | 13.1x | 13.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 17,127 | 17,127 | 17,127 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 212,603 | 223,793 | 234,983 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (212,782) | (212,782) | (212,782) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 0 | 11,011 | 22,201 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 9,855.4 | 9,855.4 | 9,855.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.00 | 1.12 | 2.25 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/HKD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.00 | 1.20 | 2.41 | 1.60 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -100.0% | -25.3% | 50.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 1813 | 3380 | XIN | 1238 | 2007 | 1918 | |
| Enterprise Value | 39,065 | 92,866 | 10,410 | 64,181 | 253,164 | 227,519 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,516 | 9,500 | 646 | 6,543 | 17,192 | 7,087 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 38,867 | 14,617 | 792 | 9,322 | 53,762 | 76,482 | |
| (-) Debt | (72,985) | (107,319) | (11,502) | (61,582) | (251,674) | (278,055) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (5,329) | (4,763) | (236) | (16,877) | (60,145) | (18,295) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,134 | 4,902 | 110 | 1,587 | 12,299 | 14,737 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,418.9 | 5,520.9 | 5.7 | 4,140.4 | 27,705.2 | 9,855.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.33 | 0.89 | 19.40 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 1.50 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.93 | 0.93 | 7.27 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.36 | 0.95 | 2.67 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 1.60 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | USD | HKD | HKD | HKD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.93 | 0.93 | 7.27 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | |