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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 284.0x - 313.9x | 299.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 8.7x - 9.6x | 9.2x |
| Fair Value | ¥21.95 - ¥24.26 | ¥23.10 |
| Upside | 60.1% - 76.9% | 68.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Beijing New Space Technology Co., Ltd. | 605178 | SHSE:605178 |
| Zhejiang Reclaim Construction Group Co., Ltd. | 2586 | SZSE:002586 |
| Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co., Ltd. | 928 | SZSE:000928 |
| China Haisum Engineering Co., Ltd. | 2116 | SZSE:002116 |
| Shenzhen Zhongzhuang Construction Group Co.,Ltd | 2822 | SZSE:002822 |
| CSSC Science& Technology Co., Ltd | 600072 | SHSE:600072 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 605178 | 2586 | 928 | 2116 | 2822 | 600072 | ||
| SHSE:605178 | SZSE:002586 | SZSE:000928 | SZSE:002116 | SZSE:002822 | SHSE:600072 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 7.9% | 52.4% | NM- | 68.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 22.3% | 26.2% | NM- | 132.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.6% | 71.8% | 6.3% | 27.0% | -1137.1% | -90.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -36.8% | 0.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 3.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -68.5% | -6.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -100.9% | -2.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | -10.7% | 3.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -85.0% | -3.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | -32.0% | 0.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 6.90x | 1.34x | 0.36x | 0.24x | 1.61x | 3.27x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -8.1x | -40.6x | 5.7x | 4.0x | -5.0x | 344.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -7.7x | -29.3x | 5.8x | 4.3x | -4.6x | -68.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -40.6x | -5.0x | 5.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -183.9x | 32.6x | 138.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 284.0x | 299.0x | 313.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 109 | 109 | 109 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 31,017 | 32,649 | 34,282 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 31,017 | 32,649 | 34,282 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,506.5 | 1,506.5 | 1,506.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 20.59 | 21.67 | 22.76 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 20.59 | 21.67 | 22.76 | 13.71 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 50.2% | 58.1% | 66.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 605178 | 2586 | 928 | 2116 | 2822 | 600072 | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,616 | 2,970 | 6,037 | 1,714 | 4,909 | 20,654 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 193 | 1,093 | 4,946 | 3,068 | 212 | 0 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 43 | 124 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (120) | (996) | (969) | (27) | (2,632) | 0 | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (54) | (32) | 0 | 0 | (19) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,677 | 3,158 | 10,014 | 4,755 | 2,552 | 20,654 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 99.3 | 1,144.2 | 1,434.6 | 455.5 | 733.4 | 1,506.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 16.90 | 2.76 | 6.98 | 10.44 | 3.48 | 13.71 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 16.90 | 2.76 | 6.98 | 10.44 | 3.48 | 13.71 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |