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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.8x - 8.6x | 8.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.9x - 6.5x | 6.2x |
| Fair Value | ¥3.66 - ¥4.23 | ¥3.95 |
| Upside | 8.4% - 25.2% | 16.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited | 1600 | SEHK:1600 |
| Jy Gas Limited | 1407 | SEHK:1407 |
| ENN Energy Holdings Limited | 2688 | SEHK:2688 |
| Towngas Smart Energy Company Limited | 1083 | SEHK:1083 |
| Henan Lantian Gas Co.,Ltd. | 605368 | SHSE:605368 |
| Bestsun Energy Co., Ltd. | 600681 | SHSE:600681 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 1600 | 1407 | 2688 | 1083 | 605368 | 600681 | ||
| SEHK:1600 | SEHK:1407 | SEHK:2688 | SEHK:1083 | SHSE:605368 | SHSE:600681 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -0.6% | NM- | 4.1% | 4.0% | 12.4% | -9.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -8.0% | -18.4% | -1.6% | 0.0% | 18.6% | -7.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -10.1% | 7.4% | -7.0% | 8.6% | -10.4% | -17.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 22.3% | 15.7% | 11.7% | 15.7% | 18.5% | 19.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 18.1% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 20.0% | 16.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 16.1% | 14.4% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 18.6% | 15.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 16.1% | 14.4% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 18.6% | 12.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.97x | 0.03x | 0.64x | 0.93x | 1.62x | 0.97x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.6x | 0.2x | 6.6x | 6.8x | 8.7x | 7.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.6x | 0.3x | 8.6x | 10.5x | 11.1x | 11.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.2x | 6.6x | 8.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.5x | 8.5x | 9.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.8x | 8.2x | 8.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 670 | 670 | 670 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,231 | 5,506 | 5,782 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,711) | (1,711) | (1,711) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,520 | 3,796 | 4,071 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 990.7 | 990.7 | 990.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3.55 | 3.83 | 4.11 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.55 | 3.83 | 4.11 | 3.38 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 5.1% | 13.4% | 21.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 1600 | 1407 | 2688 | 1083 | 605368 | 600681 | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,428 | 8 | 70,822 | 19,886 | 7,682 | 5,059 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,368 | 224 | 7,693 | 2,725 | 1,262 | 502 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 929 | 0 | 15,034 | 9,703 | 94 | 43 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,009) | (62) | (20,394) | (17,474) | (1,275) | (2,090) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (318) | (16) | (5,975) | (2,310) | (66) | (165) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,398 | 154 | 67,180 | 12,530 | 7,697 | 3,348 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 969.1 | 440.0 | 1,120.7 | 3,480.6 | 714.6 | 990.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2.47 | 0.35 | 59.95 | 3.60 | 10.77 | 3.38 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.65 | 0.38 | 64.20 | 3.60 | 10.77 | 3.38 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |