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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 3.4x - 3.8x | 3.6x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 3.7x - 4.1x | 3.9x |
| Fair Value | ¥384.22 - ¥469.75 | ¥426.99 |
| Upside | -2.7% - 18.9% | 8.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd. | 8830 | TSE:8830 |
| Mitsubishi Estate Co., Ltd. | 8802 | TSE:8802 |
| Global Link Management Inc. | 3486 | TSE:3486 |
| Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. | 8801 | TSE:8801 |
| J.S.B.Co.,Ltd. | 3480 | TSE:3480 |
| Ichigo Inc. | 2337 | TSE:2337 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 8830 | 8802 | 3486 | 8801 | 3480 | 2337 | |||
| TSE:8830 | TSE:8802 | TSE:3486 | TSE:8801 | TSE:3480 | TSE:2337 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -0.9% | 3.6% | 20.8% | 5.1% | 10.3% | -0.2% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 1.8% | 7.6% | NM- | 5.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.9% | 16.3% | 56.3% | 0.8% | 9.9% | 89.1% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 25.2% | 19.5% | 7.6% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 18.8% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 25.7% | 21.5% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 18.3% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 26.3% | 18.5% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 11.7% | 15.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 26.0% | 20.1% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 15.1% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 5.50x | 3.45x | 0.63x | 2.86x | 1.06x | 3.47x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 21.2x | 17.2x | 7.0x | 21.4x | 9.5x | 22.9x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 2.74x | 1.91x | 0.47x | 1.61x | 0.97x | 1.67x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.63x | 2.86x | 5.50x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 3.13x | 5.13x | 8.93x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 3.42x | 3.60x | 3.78x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 101,555 | 101,555 | 101,555 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 347,529 | 365,820 | 384,111 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (183,382) | (183,382) | (183,382) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 164,147 | 182,438 | 200,729 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 428.2 | 428.2 | 428.2 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 383.37 | 426.09 | 468.81 | |||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 383.37 | 426.09 | 468.81 | 395.00 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -2.9% | 7.9% | 18.7% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 8830 | 8802 | 3486 | 8801 | 3480 | 2337 | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,636,273 | 5,606,606 | 40,309 | 6,749,863 | 75,245 | 352,509 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 70,469 | 306,149 | 11,292 | 239,692 | 13,252 | 53,243 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,005,385 | 866,455 | 71 | 1,878,479 | 6,716 | 29,172 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,902,606) | (3,446,547) | (21,300) | (4,935,544) | (26,110) | (254,859) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (222,688) | (13) | (121,597) | 0 | (10,938) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,809,521 | 3,109,975 | 30,358 | 3,810,893 | 69,103 | 169,127 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 470.8 | 1,246.0 | 16.0 | 2,773.6 | 21.1 | 428.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5,967.00 | 2,496.00 | 1,896.00 | 1,374.00 | 3,275.00 | 395.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5,967.00 | 2,496.00 | 1,896.00 | 1,374.00 | 3,275.00 | 395.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |