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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 4.6x - 5.0x | 4.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.4x - 4.8x | 4.6x |
| Fair Value | ¥1,120 - ¥1,248 | ¥1,184 |
| Upside | -15.6% - -6.0% | -10.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Sankyu Inc. | 9065 | TSE:9065 |
| The Keihin Co., Ltd. | 9312 | TSE:9312 |
| SG Holdings Co.,Ltd. | 9143 | TSE:9143 |
| AIT Corporation | 9381 | TSE:9381 |
| Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. | 9064 | TSE:9064 |
| Hamakyorex Co., Ltd. | 9037 | TSE:9037 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 9065 | 9312 | 9143 | 9381 | 9064 | 9037 | ||
| TSE:9065 | TSE:9312 | TSE:9143 | TSE:9381 | TSE:9064 | TSE:9037 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 0.0% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 26.3% | -5.1% | 4.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 2.4% | 0.3% | -0.6% | 20.2% | -15.7% | 5.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.8% | 3.3% | 0.7% | -4.8% | -30.4% | 11.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.9% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 13.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 10.0% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 13.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 13.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 13.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.53x | 0.12x | 0.68x | 0.47x | 0.35x | 0.71x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 1.3x | 7.3x | 5.3x | 9.8x | 5.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.7x | 2.1x | 10.4x | 6.2x | 39.0x | 7.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.3x | 5.3x | 9.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | 3.9x | 4.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.6x | 4.8x | 5.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 19,653 | 19,653 | 19,653 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 89,636 | 94,354 | 99,072 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (6,489) | (6,489) | (6,489) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 83,147 | 87,865 | 92,583 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 74.0 | 74.0 | 74.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,123.73 | 1,187.48 | 1,251.24 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,123.73 | 1,187.48 | 1,251.24 | 1,327.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -15.3% | -10.5% | -5.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 9065 | 9312 | 9143 | 9381 | 9064 | 9037 | |
| Enterprise Value | 316,354 | 5,998 | 982,385 | 25,343 | 614,618 | 104,677 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 54,469 | 8,786 | 131,294 | 12,519 | 204,538 | 22,950 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 67,309 | 9,450 | 59,636 | 2,824 | 54,135 | 7,763 | |
| (-) Debt | (106,013) | (9,120) | (213,398) | 0 | (207,493) | (25,079) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (3,612) | 0 | (4,512) | (371) | (8,789) | (12,123) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 328,507 | 15,114 | 955,405 | 40,315 | 657,009 | 98,188 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 52.7 | 6.5 | 625.5 | 23.5 | 329.4 | 74.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 6,232.00 | 2,315.00 | 1,527.50 | 1,716.00 | 1,994.50 | 1,327.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 6,232.00 | 2,315.00 | 1,527.50 | 1,716.00 | 1,994.50 | 1,327.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |