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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 4.7x - 5.2x | 5.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.8x - 5.3x | 5.0x |
| Fair Value | ¥3,145 - ¥3,401 | ¥3,273 |
| Upside | -5.1% - 2.6% | -1.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| AIT Corporation | 9381 | TSE:9381 |
| Sankyu Inc. | 9065 | TSE:9065 |
| PHYZ Holdings Inc. | 9325 | TSE:9325 |
| SG Holdings Co.,Ltd. | 9143 | TSE:9143 |
| Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. | 9064 | TSE:9064 |
| Shibusawa Logistics Corporation | 9304 | TSE:9304 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 9381 | 9065 | 9325 | 9143 | 9064 | 9304 | ||
| TSE:9381 | TSE:9065 | TSE:9325 | TSE:9143 | TSE:9064 | TSE:9304 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 26.3% | 0.0% | NM- | 6.6% | -5.1% | 1.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 20.2% | 2.4% | 28.7% | -0.6% | -15.7% | 1.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -4.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 0.7% | -30.4% | 2.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.8% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 10.3% | 6.0% | 10.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 8.7% | 10.0% | 5.6% | 11.7% | 5.6% | 9.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.9% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 9.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.0% | 10.2% | 5.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 9.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.47x | 0.53x | 0.25x | 0.68x | 0.35x | 0.49x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.3x | 5.2x | 4.7x | 7.3x | 9.8x | 5.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 6.2x | 7.7x | 5.2x | 10.4x | 39.0x | 8.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 5.3x | 9.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.4x | 5.3x | 5.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 5.0x | 5.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 7,427 | 7,427 | 7,427 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 35,225 | 37,079 | 38,933 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 10,263 | 10,263 | 10,263 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 45,488 | 47,342 | 49,196 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3,160.22 | 3,289.02 | 3,417.82 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3,160.22 | 3,289.02 | 3,417.82 | 3,315.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -4.7% | -0.8% | 3.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 9381 | 9065 | 9325 | 9143 | 9064 | 9304 | |
| Enterprise Value | 25,343 | 316,354 | 7,567 | 982,385 | 614,618 | 37,453 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 12,519 | 54,469 | 3,801 | 131,294 | 204,538 | 12,422 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,824 | 67,309 | 958 | 59,636 | 54,135 | 28,769 | |
| (-) Debt | 0 | (106,013) | (1,972) | (213,398) | (207,493) | (29,991) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (371) | (3,612) | (92) | (4,512) | (8,789) | (937) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 40,315 | 328,507 | 10,262 | 955,405 | 657,009 | 47,716 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 23.5 | 52.7 | 10.7 | 625.5 | 329.4 | 14.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,716.00 | 6,232.00 | 956.00 | 1,527.50 | 1,994.50 | 3,315.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,716.00 | 6,232.00 | 956.00 | 1,527.50 | 1,994.50 | 3,315.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |